TrendCalc Market Insights
Wednesday, the S&P500 was a strong positive day (+1.14%), bringing the YTD return to +4.75%. With few expectations, virtually all sectors and asset classes were also positive for the day, led once again by energy (+3.87%), energy service (+6.72%) and banking (+2.68%). Also, having a strong day was semiconductors (+2.94%).
All TrendCalc model portfolios were positive for the day. In general, TrendCalc’s Wealth Creation portfolios continue to lead the charge as top performers, not just within the TrendCalc’s family, but I would suspect that they are producing some of the very best within the financial advice industry. TC Sectors and TC TINS are our top year-to-date performers with returns of +12.90% and +13.91% respectively. 53 days into 2021 doesn’t prove anything, but we are pleased in our process producing (exceptionally) successful returns vs benchmark indexes and Conventional Wisdom’s passive BaH (buy-and-hold) average-averaging.
Our macro concerns:
- Fed (and other central banks) action and manipulation
- Government leadership and decision-making in battling COVID
- Growing likelihood of increasing inflation from macro concerns 1 & 2
It is our belief at TrendCalc that great investment advice requires a disciplined multi-dimensional approach. The first dimension is that the investment advice needs to match up with the needs of the investor’s financial and retirement plans. This is the financial planning side of the investing success mystery. It is making those adjustments relative to each individual investor’s financial needs and plan. And for the most part, the financial advice industry and most advice professionals that comprise it are fairly capable in doing those things (although there’s always room for improvement).
Another dimension to the investing success mystery is having the knowledge, understanding, and experience of how investment markets and capital economies truly work. This involves experience in actually making buy-hold-sell decisions relative to the actual activity and behavior of the investment markets and economy. Why would anyone pay for a passive BaH investment strategy that is mostly no decision-making or adjustments relative to the investment markets?
As a true market professional, TrendCalc does not believe in letting the behavior of capital markets and that of other investors control portfolio values and performance. TrendCalc attempts to minimize these impacts (and better control portfolio volatility) by using multidimensional, multidirectional strategies within singular portfolios, with allocation adjustments being made according to defined buy-hold-sell rules.
If you or your source of financial advice don’t understand and are not employing a multi-dimensional approach to your investment and retirement plans and portfolios, then maybe it is time you talk to a true market professional who does.
Philip S. Hammond, CFP®
Managing Director/Chief Portfolio Strategist
This material is not a recommendation to buy, sell, hold, or roll over any asset, adopt an investment strategy, retain a specific investment manager, or use a particular account type. It does not take into account the specific investment objectives, tax and financial condition or particular needs of any specific person. Investors should discuss their specific situation with their financial professional.
Except where otherwise indicated, the views and opinions expressed are those of TrendCalc as of the date noted, are subject to change at any time and may not come to pass.
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