TrendCalc Market Insights
Yesterday, the S&P500 had another down day (-0.44%) continuing its negative streak for the week. It now stands at +4.42% YTD. With few exceptions, almost all sectors and asset classes were also down for the day.
All TrendCalc’s models declined, most notably our Wealth Creation models. But in spite of that, they continue to hold a performance gap over buy-and-hold portfolios and various benchmark indexes. Although they gave up some performance yesterday, TC Sectors and TC TINS remain our leaders with YTD returns of +6.81% and +7.65% respectively. 49 days into the year doesn’t prove anything, but we are pleased in our process producing successful returns vs benchmark indexes and Conventional Wisdom’s passive BaH (buy-and-hold) average-averaging.
Our macro concerns remain the same:
- Fed (and other central banks) action and manipulation
- Government leadership and decision-making in battling COVID
- Political unrest and a growing divide
On days like yesterday, with broad declines across the investment markets’ landscape, for us, it is not surprising for our higher-conviction, more concentrated models, namely Wealth Creation, to experience greater than average regressions. As such, there are no concerns, as we see this as a lot of meaningless (shorter-term) noise. The road to performance greatness is never a smooth ride; don’t let anyone tell you otherwise. But even if these shorter-term days of negative returns were to persist into longer-term trends, we still would not get overly excited about what, if anything, we should do.
Our TrendCalc model portfolios are designed with a variety of predetermined systematic buy-hold-sell decision-making processes that will guide and govern the time and place of all decisions. These processes were well thought-out (in advance) and are based in sound economic fundamentals, a true understanding of how investment markets work and independent trading strategies. Add in computer programing algorithms, cutting edge machine learning, and a bit of artificial intelligence, combined with several layers of risk management, we have turnkey money management systems for each of the TrendCalc portfolio models. This virtually removes all influence of fear & greed emotions from buy-hold-sell decision-making of each portfolio. And never forget that emotional decision-making is the kiss-of-death when it comes to sound investment decision-making and maintaining brilliant long-term performance.
Do you or your source of advice have procedures and processes that are well thought-out in advance, that govern any and all daily, monthly, quarterly, and annual buy-hold-sell decision-making, that can help control risk without sacrificing performance excellence? If the answer is no or filled with deficits, maybe it is time you find someone who can help. Maybe it is time to work with a true market professional who is experienced in how investment markets truly work and can help you with a complete investment decision-making process, which likely provides you with a more comfortable and confident ride, regardless of the journey’s bumps in the road.
Philip S. Hammond, CFP®
Managing Director/Chief Portfolio Strategist
This material is not a recommendation to buy, sell, hold, or roll over any asset, adopt an investment strategy, retain a specific investment manager or use a particular account type. It does not take into account the specific investment objectives, tax and financial condition or particular needs of any specific person. Investors should discuss their specific situation with their financial professional.
Except where otherwise indicated, the views and opinions expressed are those of TrendCalc as of the date noted, are subject to change at any time and may not come to pass.
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